kmb

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you can be bearish, but you have to admit when you're wrong.

Oh boy, I hit a nerve. My last two days of donning the bear suit and imitating the bears has brought on a cacophony of critics, all of whom think that I am attacking them personally! That's right, they think I have read them, seen them and heard them and that I am spoofing them or making fun of them.

Moreover, they think that I am wildly bullish and that I am mocking them for not wanting to buy things here.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AirTran Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AAI) reported its third consecutive quarterly profit and will increase capacity.
• Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares soared after it reported very strong Q3 numbers.
• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reported stellar Q4 results, driven by the popularity of Macs and iPhones.
• BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) Q3 earnings soared, due in part to a tax benefit, and assets managed grew.
• Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) revenue surged sequentially but note the would be flat going forward.
• Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) beat Q3 earnings expectations and shares rose though revenue slumped.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB), a consumer products entity whose colleagues include Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), is up today on third-quarter results. At the time of this writing, my screen was showing shares of Kimberly-Clark higher by a little under 6%.

According to the corporate press release, sales declined 1.7%. Not a great start, but Kimberly-Clark highlighted a better metric: organic sales increased 3%, helped along by price increases. Luckily, sales volume didn't fare too badly; they were essentially flat.

A global economy on the mend means better days are ahead for Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB), hence I'm reiterating my Buy rating for the company, first recommended on June 22, 2009 at a price of $51.06. If you bought KMB's shares then, you're up about 16%.

Evidence is mounting that the global economy, particularly in emerging markets, is starting to gain traction, and global consumer products giant Kimberly, with a presence in more than 150 countries, is poised to benefit. Institutional Investors have sensed this, and have bid-up KMB's shares since March.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the spike in stock prices warrants no buying until prices go lower.

I read a scary book this weekend: the S&P chart book. It was frightening because there weren't more than a handful charts that aren't overextended, and many stocks have reached levels that I didn't like when their companies were doing well. Chart after chart in every business, but especially retail and industrial, have moved up so much that you have to feel like a chump to come in at these levels.

There are almost no stocks with growth prospects that have accidentally high yields anymore. Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) (Cramer's Take) and Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX) (Cramer's Take) were the only two that I saw that seemed remotely appealing, and maybe Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) (Cramer's Take).

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) met Q2 earnings estimates but fell short of revenue expectations.
• Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) lower Q2 results beat expectations, lifted by strength in non-cola beverages.
• Continental Airlines Inc. (NYSE: CAL) reported net loss was accompanied by a job cuts announcement.
• Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) surprised with a Q2 profit due mainly to a huge gain from debt reduction.
• Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) posted better-than-expected Q2 earnings due to Transformers and G.I. Joe toys.
• Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) posted strong numbers for Q2 and also raised its full-year guidance.

Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), a consumer-products company that counts Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) as colleagues, announced Q2 results on Thursday. The performance wasn't spectacular, but management successfully defended the bottom line from the recession by instituting pricing strategies that leveraged the brand equity of the company's portfolio.

The bottom line fell, of course, but probably not as far as it would have if there weren't any pricing mechanisms in place. Earnings per share came in at 97 cents. This was six cents lower than last year's adjusted Q2 income. Revenues were challenged by dollar fluctuations, dropping well over 5%. However, here's the silver lining: organic sales increased almost 3%, even with volumes on the decline.

I would think that all of the diapers the latest FightBaby goes through may have helped Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) a bit, but that was not the case.

The home of Kleenex and Huggies announced yesterday that it will cut 1,600 jobs, roughly 3% of its total workforce. A majority of the cuts will come from salaried and nonproduction workers; the company does not plan to close any plants. The company believes that these cuts will save roughly $150 million a year, or 25 cents per share. These results will be reflected the most in the second quarter, when the company will record $110 million of the costs.

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable, global trend as a support. And with the aforementioned in mind, Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is worth a review.

In general, analysts expect a sales decline of 4-6% for KMB in FY2009, including a negative foreign currency effect. Kimberly is being hurt by both the recession -- which has prompted widespread belt-tightening by consumers -- and by increased competition. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for KMB are $4.16 to $4.64.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer suggests watching certain staples for hints that the flight to riskier plays is losing steam.

Will the endless "beta" trade out of slow-moving, "safe" drugs and foods and into companies like Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) ever end?

I think it won't end here, that's for certain, unless your staples stock goes to a 5% yield and the economy's macro data show a further breakdown. If we get some retail sales that are awful and some employment numbers that show a further trashing, then we are going to see a momentary blip up in stocks like Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take) and Clorox (NYSE: CLX) (Cramer's Take), but perhaps no more than that.

Shareholders of Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) received some not-so-cool news on Wednesday. The consumer-products business was subjected to a downgrade courtesy of Linda Bolton Weiser of Caris & Co. The analyst changed the designation on Colgate-Palmolive from "Buy" to "Above Average." The effects of currency translations is what she's worried about. She believes that they could be a drag on earnings.

If you're a long-term shareholder, I probably wouldn't worry too much about this downgrade. The stock didn't react much to the news, dropping only modestly at the end of the trading session on Wednesday (it was down like 0.3%). Obviously Colgate-Palmolive, like Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Clorox (NYSE: CLX), and Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), has great potential as a core investment because of its brand portfolio.

Back in 2001, Jim Collins had a monster of a business bestseller with his book Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap. . . and Others Don't. In it, Collins explored companies that have become hugely successful and found that success generally comes as a result of focusing resources on things that you're good at instead of mindlessly diversifying.

Arkansas Business writer Jeff Hankins read the book again to see how the companies profiled have weathered the downturn. The companies profiled were Abbot Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Kroger (NYSE: KR), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), Walgreens (NYSE: WAG), Altria (NYSE: MO), Nucor (NYSE: NUE), Pitney Bowes (NYSE: PBI), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and tragically, Fannie Mae and Circuit City. Gilette was eliminated from contention because of a merger.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares surged after earnings easily topped Q4 expectations.
• AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) reported that its Q4 earnings fell while its revenue rose marginally.
• Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) posted a big loss and lower revenue due to strikes and design changes.
• Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) reported that Q4 profit fell despite higher revenue and lowered its guidance.
• Danaher Corp. (NYSE: DHR) lower Q4 profit topped analysts' estimates, sending shares higher.
• Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) reported a Q4 net loss and announced additional job cuts.

Consumer-products company Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB), whose colleagues include The Procter & Gamble Compay (NYSE: PG) and Energizer Holdings (NYSE: ENR), reported earnings for the fourth quarter, and they weren't great, at least to me. Sales decreased over 3%, and earnings per share were $1.01 on an adjusted basis, which represented a dive of 9%. According to Stocks in the News, that missed estimates by the proverbial penny. Another weak showing was cash from operations, which fell by 1%. Not disastrous, maybe, and certainly understandable, but disappointing, nevertheless.

One thing to keep in mind is that the swings in the value of the dollar affected net sales. Organic growth actually expanded by 5% in the quarter. Kimberly-Clark doesn't expect much to happen in 2009. Management's headline in the release states that adjusted earnings should be between $4 and $4.20 per share next year. This year, earnings were $4.14 per share. Also to keep in mind is that management is watching pension expenses.

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) announced a deal to acquire rival Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) for $68 billion, or $50.19 a share, a 15% premium to Friday's close of $43.74. This cash-and-stock deal is the largest in the drug sector since 2000 and many see it as a precursor to a flourishing M&A season as the credit markets are slowly starting to improve. Pfizer also reported a 90% profit drop for the fourth quarter due to charges. PFE shares declined 3.4% in premarket trading, while WYE shares gained nearly 5%.

Barclays (NYSE: BCS) shares surged in London Monday after the firm reassured investors in a letter to shareholders it didn't need more capital. But France's BNP Paribas said it would take more cash from the government following a 1.4 billion euro ($1.8 billion) loss in the latest quarter. Finally, ING (NYSE: ING), the Dutch financial services firm, also received government aid as it is expected to announce it had a net loss of 3.3 billion euros in the fourth quarter, that it would cut 7,000 jobs, and that its CEO would step down. BCS shares gained over 44% in premarket trading and ING's gained over 19%.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) are two Dow components set to report earnings this morning. CAT said its fourth-quarter profit fell to $661 million, or $1.08 a share, from $975 million, or $1.50 a share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue rose 6% to $12.9 billion. For 2009, Caterpillar gave a a much lower guidance than analysts had expected, $2.50 vs. $4.35 EPS. CAT also said it would slash 20,000 jobs. CAT shares fell over 11% in premarket trading.
Meanwhile, MCD delivered what at first glance seems to be better-than-expected earnings of 87 cents vs. 84 cents. It even plans to invest $2.1 billion of capital to open about 1,000 new McDonald's restaurants.

American Express (NYSE: AXP) is the third Dow component tor report quarterly results after the close of trading today and is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 20 cents a share.